Forecast posted July 2022

Forward projections that suggest MEG could go long globally in the next few years, although extended downtime in the USG preceded by several unplanned outages earlier this year led to availability constraints that have since abated. That dynamic is changing however following restarts in the USG and Canada. Markets in the Americas are under pressure at the moment with domestic assessments trending lower as spot prices in other major centers of trade drop. Anti-dumping measures in Europe and the high duties assigned to most US producers continue to make exports to the region extremely difficult notwithstanding somewhat illiquid conditions. Downstream needs both within the Americas and in both Europe and Asia are seasonally slower and the looming specter of a recession in the US is leading to bearish sentiments among traders. Inventory levels in China are elevated despite diminished production. Watch for planned downtime in the coming months as well as any hurricane related outages for an indication as to whether US markets become more balanced. The new ExxonMobil/SABIC JV in South Texas is running despite intermittent issues augmenting supply in the USG, but unplanned outages or intentional rate cuts could change that dynamic.

*Please note forecasts are based on analysis of historical trends and cycles as well as expectations regarding future supply and demand patterns. The data is provided for informational purposes only and Chemical Intelligence does not assume any liability for any decisions attributed to reliance on said information.