Forecasts As of July 2019
Acetone surplus is expected to dwindle over the next few months and markets to rebalance because of reduced phenol operating rates due to slower polycarbonate demand and fewer imports while the ADD investigation is underway. In addition, by the end of July all MMA producers should be operational, which will also contribute to more balanced supply in spot markets. While producers are already reporting tightening conditions, many observers continue to note healthy inventories and readily available product. Prices will likely stabilize in July after softening during the first half of the year before beginning to slowly increase in August and September.
After briefly firming following the ITC fire in March, IPA prices corrected sharply lower in late May and June. Competitive spot truck prices will likely stabilize and continue to hover in the low 50 cts/lb range for the remainder of the year while contract prices will likely react more to chemical grade propylene costs, which will likely firm in late summer before easing heading into December.
Strong toluene demand in July will push spot barge prices higher and truck offers will likely follow; although several sellers made modest decreases at the beginning of the month. Demand will likely slow heading into year’s end and prices should made modest downward corrections. MX spot barge demand is slower and prices are expected to fluctuate with energy values. MX truck prices will likely hold steady in July and August and moderate some heading into the end of the year.
*Please note forecasts are based on analysis of historical trends and cycles as well as expectations regarding future supply and demand patterns. The data is provided for informational purposes only and Chemical Intelligence does not assume any liability for any decisions attributed to reliance on said information.